S'mores Real Estate Treats on a Friday
 
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A few treats about real estate
& finance on a Friday

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This week in 5 minutes or less:

✅ Why Interest Rates Are Higher Post Fed Cut

Blackstone Calls "Bottom" in Commercial Real Estate

What Does High Gold Prices Tell Us About Market Psychology?

How to Analyze A Commercial Real Estate Deal in 30 Seconds

 Bonfire's Next Investment Opportunity 


                    Chart of the Week: 10 Year Interest Rates Since the Fed "Cut"


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Declaring the war on inflation over, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) on September 18, 2024, 

Yet, in the six weeks since then, the 10 year treasury rate has actually increased by almost 60 bps!

How does this happen?

Remember that the Federal Reserve only sets short-term interest rates. 

Longer duration yields such as the 10 year and 30 year are dictated by market forces more sensitive to perceptions of long-term inflation. 

My guess is our annual $2T deficits (on top of $34T+ debts) and two Presidential candidates whose policies are estimated to add another $4-$8T of debt during their term (regardless who gets elected), has resulted in the market telling us to accept higher interest rates for longer than we got accustomed to. 

What does this mean for you as an investor?  

It means that real estate operators with cheap debt resetting in the short-term are in a very weak position and might need to sell their asset at fire-sale prices

This isn't a 2008 situation with housing foreclosures but there are some tasty opportunities starting to emerge.  

One of which is referenced below... 

            Article of the Week: Blackstone Calls Bottom in Commercial Real Estate


It is said that "talk is cheap."  Well Blackstone is putting its money where its mouth is.

  • Blackstone is the world’s largest commercial property owner
  • Has invested $22 billion into real estate this year, 2x what it invested in 2023 
  • Focused on logistics and apartments 
  • Opportunistic on high-quality office buildings   
Other than after-the-fact, it is pretty hard to nail "the bottom."  However, staying on the sidelines and letting 'the perfect be the enemy of the good' is also a losing strategy.  If you know what you are looking for and have the dry powder to act, this is one of the best investing climates in the last 15 years. 

                            Resource of the Week: How to Quickly Analyze A Deal

Commercial real estate investing is a lot of work but isn't rocket science.  One of Bonfire's missions is to demystify commercial real estate by sharing with folks what we look for when evaluating an investment. 

One metric called Stabilized Yield is a great way to quickly gauge whether a project is worth pursuing or not. Here is a step-by-step breakdown: 

  • Understanding Stabilized Yield: It's the post-renovation Net Operating Income (NOI) divided by Total Costs (purchase price + renovation).
  • Profit vs. Loss: If the stabilized yield is below the market cap rate, the deal loses money; if above, it’s profitable.
  • Measuring the Upside: The greater the stabilized yield exceeds the market cap rate, the higher the profit (e.g., a yield of 8% vs. a cap rate of 5% gives a 300 bps gain).
  • Quick Calculation: Estimate potential deals in 30 seconds:
    • Revenue = Market rent x units x 12 x 95% occupancy
    • Net Operating Income (NOI) = Revenue x market NOI margin
    • Stabilized Yield = NOI / (purchase price + renovation costs)
  • Key Threshold: A stabilized yield at least 150 bps above the market cap rate signals a deal worth considering.
  •                                   The Economist: Why is Gold Having Its Moment 

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    The combined population of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, Switzerland, and Hong Kong is about 112 million. 

    The average person in these countries spent around $300 buying gold last year

    Well it turns out they aren't alone. 

    Family Offices and Central Banks are buying up record amounts of gold.

    But why?

    The Economist wrote a great essay exploring this question and what it tells us about current global market psychology at a time when stock markets are at all time highs. 

                                                         Next Bonfire Deal 

    Early next week, we will find out if one of our investment partners will be awarded the acquisition of two distressed office buildings in the Colorado Boulevard submarket of Denver, just south of Cherry Creek.


    The transaction is a short sale below the existing loan balance held by a major US bank who must get it off their books by mid-December, which created a distressed sales process that precluded many institutional investment groups from participating.


    My partners and I own another office investment nearby and understand the submarket's leasing dynamics very well, which enables us to move quickly. It is now between us and one other investment group going through the qualified bid process. Most institutional buyers are still one the sidelines, however, we are expecting contrarian and opportunistic capital to enter the office buyer pool in 2025 resulting in more competitive bidding processes.


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    Office product type has suffered post-pandemic as employees became comfortable working from home in a remote setting. However, just this week, Starbucks and Amazon required all of their corporate employees back in the office 3-5 days per week while JLL has said the office market has reached its bottom


    Office demand may never surpass what it was before the pandemic, but companies know the cultural benefits of in-person meetings that lead to higher productivity and collaboration. There is a flight to quality happening in office buildings and new ownership groups with a reset cost basis are absorbing space at a much higher pace than commodity products.


    The cost basis on this asset is among the most attractive I have seen in the last three years and if awarded, I am planning on making a significant personal investment into this deal. There is a combination of attractive current yield with a below market cost basis, and the sponsorship is well seasoned to execute on a value add business plan.


    If such a distressed asset is something of interest to you and you want to be among the first to be alerted about this opportunity, just reply to this email and let me know. 

    Thanks for your interest and support,


    Joshua Kagan

    CEO, Bonfire


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    August 13, 2023